Probabilistic Forecasting-Based Operational Security Region for Power Systems With Renewable Energy Sources

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) introduces high uncertainty and poses significant challenges to operational security in power systems. This paper proposes a novel probabilistic operational security region (POSR) model for high-penetration RES in power systems, which is based on non-parametric probabilistic forecasting to quantify RES uncertainty. The POSR model provides a local equivalent approximation of RES feasible region incorporating system operational constraints, thereby enhancing computational efficiency in high-dimensional spaces. An innovative POSR-solving algorithm is also developed, leveraging region credibility hyper-box settings and convex hull boundaries to rapidly iterate boundaries. Case studies based on IEEE 33-bus and 141-bus systems validate the effectiveness of the proposed POSR model with high computational efficiency.