Estimation of System-Level Reliability Functions for the Power Grid Using Probabilistic Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation

Reliability Modeling for Power Systems is a very challenging task due to the high complexity of the interactions among its various components. In this paper, we develop a simple probabilistic method for modeling power system reliability based on the knowledge of the system size, transmission line capacities, and the failure rate type of the transmission lines in the system. Using Monte Carlo Simulation, we show that the probability distribution of the system failure rate is typically similar in shape to the failure distribution of the transmission lines in the system, with variations stemming from the system size, transmission line capacity, and the type of failure rate. Our method provides a very simple formula for describing system level reliability despite the high complexity of its interconnections, and provides a mechanism to develop similar functions for other complex systems, including different types of networks or critical infrastructures, and can pave the way towards better modeling for the more intelligent future grids.