Multi-stage Robust Planning Method for Park-Level Integrated Energy System Considering Evolution of Investment Costs and Carbon Emissions

To promote the progress of carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality, the Park-level Integrated Energy System (PIES) has attracted widespread attention since it can effectively improve the energy utilization efficiency and consumption of renewable energy sources. To achieve an economical and environmentally friendly supply of multiple energy with low carbon emissions, this paper proposed a multi-stage robust planning method considering the evolution of investment costs and carbon emissions. Accommodating the evolution of unit investment costs and changes in load levels during the long term, the planning horizon is divided into several stages and a set of devices is invested at the beginning of each stage. Moreover, uncertainty sets are utilized to model the fluctuation of PV output, electric load, and heat load during the short term. On this basis, a robust optimization model is constructed, where the objective is to minimize the total investment cost, operating cost and carbon emission cost. A Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is developed to solve the multi-stage robust planning model. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Simulation results demonstrate that the method yields an economical and low-carbon planning scheme while remaining robust against multiple uncertainties.