STGAN: Spatial-Temporal Graph Autoregression Network for Pavement Distress Deterioration Prediction

Pavement distress, manifested as cracks, potholes, and rutting, significantly compromises road integrity and poses risks to drivers. Accurate prediction of pavement distress deterioration is essential for effective road management, cost reduction in maintenance, and improvement of traffic safety. However, real-world data on pavement distress is usually collected irregularly, resulting in uneven, asynchronous, and sparse spatial-temporal datasets. This hinders the application of existing spatial-temporal models, such as DCRNN, since they are only applicable to regularly and synchronously collected data. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Spatial-Temporal Graph Autoregression Network (STGAN), a novel graph neural network (GNN) model designed for accurately predicting irregular pavement distress deterioration using complex spatial-temporal data. Specifically, STGAN integrates the temporal domain into the spatial domain, creating a larger graph where nodes are represented by spatial-temporal tuples and edges are formed based on a similarity-based connection mechanism. Furthermore, based on the constructed spatiotemporal graph, we formulate pavement distress deterioration prediction as a graph autoregression task, i.e., the graph size increases incrementally and the prediction is performed sequentially. This is accomplished by a novel spatial-temporal attention mechanism deployed by the proposed STGAN model. Utilizing the ConTrack dataset, which contains pavement distress records collected from different locations in Shanghai, we demonstrate the superior performance of STGAN in capturing spatial-temporal correlations and addressing the aforementioned challenges. Experimental results further show that STGAN outperforms baseline models, and ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of its novel modules. Our findings contribute to promoting proactive road maintenance decision-making and ultimately enhancing road safety and resilience.