Power Grid Dispatch Modeling for the Prospective Current Trends Scenario for the ERCOT Service Area of Texas

The management of power systems depends on economic dispatch (EC) and constrained unit commitment (UC). A way to schedule generation to meet electricity demand (reliability), with a time-varying cycle (hourly, daily, weekly) at a minimum cost is by short term optimization using mixed integer linear program (MILP). This determines the optimum resource generation pattern for a given time based on resource characteristics, network topology and demand levels. This study presents a generation characteristics and cost prediction model for 2039, using the AURORA grid modeling software, and environmental impacts stemming from generation. The model simulates hourly system operation by assessing and analyzing resource adequacy and the impact of resource changes on system operation over time, while considering transmission congestion. The resource stack is based on the “current trends” scenario published by ERCOT and the stack is varied to reflect different generation mixes. The results show congestion increases with penetration of wind/solar higher than “current trends”. Increases in battery storage and transmission capacities mitigate congestion. The environmental impacts show the generation wise contribution for the modeled year, pointing to where technology and material substitutions could mitigate impacts, wherever possible.