Forecasting China’s New Energy Vehicles Development with a Hybrid Weighted Model

This paper deeply analyzes and predicts the development trend of China's new energy vehicles (NEVs) over the next decade using a hybrid weighted model. In the context of environmental protection and energy transition, the NEV industry plays a crucial role in China's sustainable development strategy. The study collected and scraped data from various websites, performed data cleaning and indicator selection, and used NEV sales as the main indicator for prediction. A hybrid weighted model combining Grey Forecasting, Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA) was established. The ARIMA(0,3,1) model was determined through Grid Search. By comparing the prediction effects of each model and assigning corresponding weights based on their R-squared values, a more accurate prediction result was obtained. The prediction results show that the sales of NEVs in China are expected to reach 1.3668 million units in 2023, 1.7135 million units in 2024, and 1.999 million units in 2025, overall presenting a trend of rapid growth followed by gradual deceleration. This trend aligns with the objective law of industrial development, indicating that after an initial period of high growth, the market will gradually stabilize. This study provides important reference and guidance for the future development of the NEV market.