Credibility Calculation of Wind-Solar-Energy Storage System Based on Optimal Load Reduction Model

With the rapid advancement of wind and solar power technologies, traditional methods for calculating the credible capacity of wind-solar power systems face numerous challenges, particularly with the integration of energy storage. To address these issues, this paper proposes an improved method for calculating the credibility of wind-solar-energy storage systems. Given that the credibility calculation process must adhere to equal reliability criteria, this paper develops a reliability assessment model based on the optimal load reduction model, incorporating temporal sequences. The proposed calculation method, through the optimal load reduction model, better addresses the challenges posed by wind-solar systems in handling output fluctuations, load demand variations, and the uncertainties arising from different dispatch strategies for energy storage systems, thereby effectively improving the accuracy of credibility calculations. The reliability assessment model in this method utilizes historical data for calculations, rather than relying solely on forecasting and modeling, making the results more aligned with actual conditions. Additionally, the model incorporates considerations of the electrical grid into the reliability assessment, providing a more detailed evaluation of overall system reliability compared to traditional methods that focus only on the difference between total system output and demand. Finally, case studies using a modified IEEE 24-bus test system validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, demonstrating that it more accurately reflects real-world conditions and improves the accuracy of credibility calculations compared to traditional approaches.