Renewable Energy Sizing for Electric Vehicle Charging: A Case Study of Karnataka, India

India, like many other nations, is going through the transitional phase of electrifying its transport sector. As a member of the EV30@30 campaign led by the International Energy Agency (IEA), India aims to achieve a 30% sales share for electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. The state of Karnataka is a leader in the nation’s clean energy transition and is currently at the third position in EV sales among all states. However, an accelerated transition to zero-emission vehicles will eventually put the state’s power grid under acute stress, as it tries to meet the additional power demand from EV charging. Our study aimed to assess the impact of this shift by estimating the number of EVs that will ply on the roads of Karnataka by financial year (FY) 2029-30 and forecasting the energy required for charging these EVs. Further, acknowledging that a truly green transport requires that renewable energy (RE) sources be used to charge EVs (instead of fossil-fuel-based ones), the study includes a generation planning analysis wherein the amount of RE generation capacity required to meet the projected state demand (including the demand from EV charging) with least generation cost is estimated for FY 2029-30. The findings emphasise the importance of optimsing the energy mix (keeping the least-cost RE source availability in mind), and integrating energy storage systems into the grid for decarbonisation while ensuring a reliable and affordable power supply.