Robust Predictive Motion Planning by Learning Obstacle Uncertainty

Safe motion planning for robotic systems in dynamic environments is nontrivial in the presence of uncertain obstacles, where estimation of obstacle uncertainties is crucial in predicting future motions of dynamic obstacles. The worst case characterization gives a conservative uncertainty prediction and may result in infeasible motion planning for the ego robotic system. In this article, an efficient, robust, and safe motion-planning algorithm is developed by learning the obstacle uncertainties online. More specifically, the unknown yet intended control set of obstacles is efficiently computed by solving a linear programming (LP) problem. The learned control set is used to compute forward reachable sets (FRSs) of obstacles that are less conservative than the worst case prediction. Based on the forward prediction, a robust model predictive controller is designed to compute a safe reference trajectory for the ego robotic system that remains outside the reachable sets of obstacles over the prediction horizon. The method is applied to a car-like mobile robot in both simulations and hardware experiments to demonstrate its effectiveness.