A Study on the Scenario Design Method for National Decision-Making Behavior in International Conflicts

As the complexity and diversity of international conflicts intensify, designing international conflict scenarios based on causal inference is of significant importance and value for national decision-makers to grasp the key points of conflicts and achieve a scientific and effective national policy response. The study designs international conflict scenarios in three stages: data processing, structural model construction, and real-world situation fitting. Taking the construction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict scenario as an example, the study takes topic mining and causal inference methods based on conflict description texts to design scientific scenarios and analyze them to obtain reasonable policy recommendations, demonstrating the rationality of the scenario design method. The study not only provides a method for analyzing international conflicts to support practical policy generation but also offers a framework for scenario design using quantitative methods, which has important implications for future research and practice in related fields such as international political situations and military conflicts.