Predicting HIV Diagnosis Among Emerging Adults Using Electronic Health Records and Health Survey Data in All of Us Research Program

The global decline in HIV incidence has not been mirrored in the United States, where young adults (ages 18-29) continue to account for a significant portion of new infections. In this study, we leverage the All of Us (AoU) Research Program’s extensive electronic health records (EHRs) and health survey data to develop machine learning models capable of predicting HIV diagnoses at least three months before clinical identification. Among various models tested, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model demonstrated a balanced performance, integrating clinically relevant features with robust predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.91). Risky drinking behaviors emerged as consistent top predictors across models, highlighting the importance of targeted interventions in this age group. Our findings underscore the potential of predictive analytics in enhancing HIV prevention strategies and informing public health efforts aimed at reducing HIV transmission among emerging adults.