Research on the Operation Risk Analysis Method of Power System with Large-Scale Wind Power Considering Multi-Timescale Flexibility

The intermittency and fluctuation of wind power cause great uncertainty in power system, in order to quantify the operation risk and guarantee the stable operation of power grid, this paper proposes the operation risk analysis method of power system containing large-scale wind power considering multi-time scale flexibility. Firstly, we study the probability characteristics of wind power prediction error, establish a multi-timescale flexibility demand model considering wind power uncertainty, and quantify the flexibility demand of the system under different timescales; secondly, we consider the startup and shutdown constraints of the units and establish a multi-timescale flexibility supply model; and finally, we establish an optimal power flow model considering the operation risk of multi-timescales, and solve the probability of the system's insufficient flexibility and the reloaded line to analyze the system operation risk. An example analysis is conducted based on the IEEE-24 test system to validate the proposed model and methodology.