Impact of Physical Activity on Quality of Life During Pregnancy: A Causal ML Approach

The concept of Quality of Life (QoL) refers to a holistic measurement of an individual’s well-being, incorporating psychological and social aspects. Pregnant women, especially those with obesity and stress, often experience lower QoL. Physical activity (PA) has shown the potential to enhance the QoL. However, pregnant women who are overweight and obese rarely meet the recommended level of PA. Studies have investigated the relationship between PA and QoL during pregnancy using correlation-based approaches. These methods aim to discover spurious correlations between variables rather than causal relationships. Besides, the existing methods mainly rely on physical activity parameters and neglect the use of different factors such as maternal (medical) history and context data, leading to biased estimates. Furthermore, the estimations lack an understanding of mediators and counterfactual scenarios that might affect them. In this paper, we investigate the causal relationship between being physically active (treatment variable) and the QoL (outcome) during pregnancy and postpartum. To estimate the causal effect, we develop a Causal Machine Learning method, integrating causal discovery and causal inference components. The data for our investigation is derived from a long-term wearable-based health monitoring study focusing on overweight and obese pregnant women. The causal graph is generated using the causal discovery method and modified with the help of a domain expert team to accommodate the mediators in the causal model. The machine learning (meta-learner) estimation technique is used to estimate the causal effect. Our result shows that performing adequate physical activity during pregnancy and postpartum improves the QoL by units of 7.3 and 3.4 on average in physical health and psychological domains, respectively. In the final step, four refutation analysis techniques are employed to validate our estimation.