Natural Gas Load Forecasting Based on Multi-Stage Model Identification

Natural gas load forecasting is crucial for the safe operation of urban natural gas. Based on the system identification method, the short-term natural gas load forecasting is studied in the paper. Employing a multi-stage identification framework, the initial values of the model parameters using the least squares and the instrumental variables method, while the model parameters are further optimized by the prediction error method to improve the accuracy of the model identification. The proposed method is validated by the simulation based on the public natural gas data in the U.S., demonstrating the algorithm's effectiveness in forecasting the daily natural gas load effectively.