Exploring The Dynamics of Gene Drive Mosquitoes Within Wild Populations Using an Agent-Based Simulation

Gene drive technology is emerging as a potentially powerful tool in combating vector-borne diseases – notably malaria. This study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) focused on the deployment of genetically engineered mosquitoes with gene drive (GEM) in Príncipe Island, Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe, an island nation in the Gulf of Guinea, West Africa. Grounded in empirical data from laboratory and field studies, our model forecasts the dynamics of mosquito populations central to devising efficacious GEM release strategies. The core objective is to evaluate the time required for GEMs to constitute 90% of the mosquito population and to elucidate their dispersal throughout the island. This research is instrumental in understanding GEM potential in controlling malaria vectors.