Opposing Stance in Topic Evolution: A Case Analysis of Messi's Visit to Hong Kong

In February 2024, Lionel Messi's absence from a Hong Kong exhibition match ignited extensive debate across social media platforms, capturing the attention of the public and sparking controversies that extended into realms such as business partnerships and diplomatic implications. This incident not only reflects the public's reaction and pattern of stance changes toward such a complex Incident but also significantly demonstrates the close connection between cyberspace and the real world. Research on this incident has important practical significance for predicting and intervening in the evolution of similar hot incidents. In this article, the case of Messi's absence from the Hong Kong match is delved into. A stance detection method and a quantification approach for stance divergence have been devised to analyze the evolution of the stance surrounding the incident. Furthermore, by examining topic clusters over time, the topical progression of public stances is tracked. Findings reveal that nearly 60% of posts expressed an explicit stance throughout the incident, with the majority (66.9%) taking an opposing stance. Additionally, it was noted that the topics discussed at various stages followed a long-tail distribution, indicating that most discussions revolved around a few dominant themes. Within more segmented and specific topics, stance divergences were often more prominent.