Survivability Design and Resilience Analysis of Equipment System-of-Systems Based on Resilience Theory

The equipment system-of-systems (ESoS) plays a crucial role in national defense strategy. Given the myriad challenges that ESoS encounters and the potentially dire consequences of reduced survivability in battlefield scenarios, it is imperative to mitigate the impact of disturbances through effective survivability design. This article outlines a comprehensive approach for ESoS lifecycle survivability design, drawing upon resilience theory. This approach encompasses four key stages: safe protection, reliable operation, effective defense, and emergency recovery. To evaluate ESoS survivability within this framework, a hierarchical analysis is employed. Additionally, we delve into the causal relationships among various indicators at different levels of the survivability evaluation framework. We construct a system dynamics model to assess the resilience of ESoS systematically. To illustrate the application of these principles, we present a case study demonstrating the survivability design and resilience analysis of a specific ESoS. The findings reveal a remarkable 194 8% improvement in ESoS resilience against enemy attacks through the implementation of survivability design. Notably, among the four survivability stages, effective defense exerts the most significant influence on enhancing ESoS resilience, followed by safe protection, whereas emergency recovery and reliable operation have comparatively smaller impacts. The proposed survivability design methodology serves as a valuable guide for enhancing the lifecycle survivability of diverse ESoS. Additionally, the resilience evaluation approach we present can validate the effectiveness of survivability designs across various ESoS contexts.