Local Uncertainty Management of Distribution System Based on Multi-Stage Dispatch of Flexible Resources

This paper proposes a two-stage energy management strategy for distribution network (DN) operation, addressing the power uncertainty of renewable energy (RE) generation and loads through flexible resource (FR) regulation. In day-ahead (DA) stage, both the flexibility margin of FRs and power uncertainty of RE and load are modeled into interval form, based on which the uncertainty of the interaction power in the grid supply point (GSP) can be quantitatively evaluated. The objective of DA stage optimization is to reduce the uncertainty level of GSP power and the DN operation costs by simultaneously formulating the expected FR scheduling plan and allocating the sequential flexibility margins of FRs. During the intra-day (ID) operation process, as the operating scenarios of the preceding time periods are determined, some flexibility margins that were not actually utilized may be released. To fully exploit the regulation potential of FRs, a rolling optimization-based margin redistribution model are proposed for ID operation, considering the feasibility of pre-scheduled plans in the subsequent time periods. The effectiveness of proposed method in local uncertainty management is demonstrated based on case studies on a real-world distribution system.