India’s Net-Zero Scenarios: Assessing the Influence of Renewable Energy Expansion on Grid Emission Factors

The future energy mix of India is poised for a transformative shift. However, the transformation is dependent on electricity demand growth, solar and wind capacity expansion, and phasing out of coal assets. This paper discusses three scenarios—BAU, pessimistic, and optimistic—for 2047 and 2070, considering technological changes in the renewable energy (RE) sector. The methodology involves computing installed capacity and energy mix using growth/decay rates and capacity utilisation/plant load factors, respectively, for different energy sources. India's emission intensity is explored through emission factor calculations. Results under various scenarios demonstrate a direct correlation between RE's share in the energy mix and grid emissions. Through scenario simulations, the paper explains the potential pathways, challenges, and opportunities associated with achieving net-zero emissions while ensuring energy security and economic growth. The insights can inform policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders in designing effective strategies and policies to foster sustainable energy transitions for the country.