Exploiting the Potential of Invalid Patents as a Source of Technology Opportunities: Evidence From CCUS Technology

Technology opportunity analysis is an important prerequisite for the successful implementation of technological innovation activities, which is not only the basis for obtaining the initiative of innovation but also the key to occupying the technological heights of the industry. Therefore, in this article, we propose a framework that serves the monitoring of development opportunities in a specific technology field. Unlike the current alternatives, the proposed approach considers the attributes of the patent itself. On the one hand, invalid patents are integrated into the study by contrasting their R&D trends with those of valid patents. On the other hand, the contribution of a single patent to a particular technology is taken into consideration by the construction of the patent value evaluation system. The framework introduces the latent Dirichlet allocation model to identify the technology topics involved in the patent. Then, a 3-D indicator system, including technical, legal, and economic dimensions, is constructed to evaluate the importance of patents. Finally, a measure for dividing the life cycle of a technology topic is proposed to visualize the trend of each technology topic. The result is a more holistic and richer landscape covering the entire life cycle of the targeted technology, from emerging to declining. A case study specializing in global carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology demonstrates this approach. The results of the analysis are highly consistent with current technology trends, suggesting that the method could serve as a useful reference tool for discovering technology opportunities and defining new R&D strategies.