DYNAMITE: Integrating Archetypal Analysis and Process Mining for Interpretable Disease Progression Modelling

DYNAMITE, an acronym for DYNamic Archetypal analysis for MIning disease TrajEctories, is a new methodology developed specifically to model disease progression by exploiting information available in longitudinal clinical datasets. First, archetypal analysis is applied to data organised in matrix form, with the aim of finding extreme and representative disease states (archetypes) linked to the original data through convex coefficients. Then, each original observation is associated with a single archetype based on their similarity; finally, an event log is created encoding the progression of disease states for each patient in terms of archetype states. In the last stage of the procedure, archetypal analysis is coupled with process mining, which allows the event log archetypes to be visualised graphically as sequences of disease states, allowing the clinical trajectories of patients to be extracted and examined. As a proof of concept, we applied the proposed method to data from a cohort of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients whose progression was monitored using the 12-item ALSFRS-R questionnaire. Without any a priori knowledge, DYNAMITE identified six archetypes clearly describing different types and severity of impairment and provided reliable clinical trajectories consistent with the prognosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients. DYNAMITE offers high interpretability at every stage of the analysis, which makes it particularly suitable for use in healthcare where explainability is paramount, and enables analysis of clinical trajectories at both individual and population levels.