Forecasting Trend of Technological Momentum for Semiconductor Industry

The relationship between technology and society is multifaceted. This study acknowledges the influence of both human actors and internal system dynamics on technological progress. While some scholars emphasize either technological determinism or social constructivism, this research adopts a balanced perspective informed by the work of Hughes [1]. Hughes highlights the agency of individuals, governments, and corporations in shaping technology, but also introduces the concept of momentum in sociotechnical systems. This momentum suggests an autonomous evolutionary force within the system, independent of direct human control. To explore this concept, the study utilizes econometric analysis of time series data on patents granted in the semiconductor industry. The goal is to unveil and forecast the trajectory of technological momentum within this industry. By analyzing these trends, the research aims to provide a deeper understanding of the interplay between human influence and the inherent momentum of sociotechnical systems.