Research on Evaluation Method of Power System Generation Capacity Adequacy Mechanism

In order to solve the problem of insufficient potential installed capacity of the power system in the process of energy transition, foreign power markets have established a power generation capacity adequacy mechanism, among which scarcity pricing mechanism, capacity compensation mechanism, capacity market mechanism and reliability option mechanism are the most typical. Studying the effects of different mechanisms is of great significance for the selection of China's adequacy mechanism. This paper aims at the issue of power generation capacity adequacy in the context of low-carbon transformation, comprehensively considers realistic factors such as load growth uncertainty and investors' limited rationality, and constructs a long-term model of typical adequacy mechanisms such as scarcity pricing and capacity markets based on the system dynamics method. The main innovation points are: building a mainstream capacity adequacy mechanism simulation model based on system dynamics, comparing results in multiple scenarios, and helping users with policy design and decision-making.