Multi-stage Coordinated Planning Method Based on Ordered Retirement of Thermal Power Plants

Under the “Dual Carbon” goal, China's energy structure is transitioning from coal-dominated to low-carbon. The orderly retirement of thermal power units is crucial for a safe and economically viable low-carbon transformation. This study proposes a coordinated multi-stage planning method for the source-grid-storage system, aiming to ensure green and secure new power system construction while enhancing the economic benefits of low-carbon transformation. By establishing a multi-stage planning model considering the retirement of thermal power units and employing linearization and solution acceleration methods, the efficiency of the model is improved. Taking the HRP-38 test system as an example, the study outlines the development and retirement paths of thermal power under constraints such as carbon emission limits and increasing proportions of new energy sources. It evaluates the effectiveness of the multi-stage planning model from various perspectives.