Estimating the Value of Information of an Earth Observation Based Early Warning Service for Algae Blooms in Lake Harsha

This study applied a decision theory approach to quantify the potential economic Value of Information (VoI) of Earth Observations (EO) based monitoring and forecasting services developed in PrimeWater project, for managing harmful algal bloom events at a recreational lake. VoI was estimated by comparing the expected costs when decisions are taken with limited information relying on regular monitoring campaigns, against the outcomes of decisions taken with "better information" conveyed by the PrimeWater services. Expected costs considered health impacts, monitoring costs, and lost recreational revenues in case of false alarms. Four PrimeWater monitoring and forecasting services were evaluated based on their accuracy in assessing bloom conditions against in-situ data for 2015-2019. Results suggest VoI varies seasonally and between services depending on accuracy metrics and underlying bloom probabilities. Forecasting solutions provide the greatest potential savings, highlighting needs for balanced metrics to avoid excess false alarms. Findings support flexible use of EO information to complement existing programs and inform science-based management aimed at reducing societal vulnerability to HABs.