Using Satellite and Geospatial Data to Assess Accessibility and Food Security in Conflict-Affected Regions

Global conflicts are increasing and becoming more intrastate and fragmented, often driven by non-state actors. Forecasting methods, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, often lack the necessary detailed information at the local level, which limits their effectiveness in identifying areas at risk. This paper examines an advanced methodology that uses satellite and geospatial data to assess accessibility and food security in conflict-affected regions. The study focuses on the Lake Chad region and highlights the value of satellite-derived indicators in identifying structural inequalities that may contribute to conflicts and assesses their impact on local populations and agriculture. Two key indicators are highlighted: the Emergency Medical Service Access Index (EMSAI) and the Agricultural Stress Index (ASI). The EMSAI quantifies the accessibility of healthcare facilities to the population, while the ASI assesses agricultural vegetation health, providing insights into food security. The paper demonstrates how open-source satellite data can offer a detailed perspective on structural disparity, particularly in cases where national databases are inadequate or unavailable. A detailed analysis of Borno State, Nigeria, illustrates the application of these indicators and the importance of local level data in providing a more comprehensive view of vulnerable regions.