Improving the utilization and reliability of household-scale photovoltaic systems by operating energy storage based on production and consumption forecasts

In Hungary, the number of household-scale photo-voltaic (PV) systems has been increasing exponentially due to state-financed investments and favorable climatic conditions. In the future, grid-connected household-scale photovoltaic systems will possibly cause issues on the public electricity grid; therefore, the use of physical energy storage systems might be obliged. This paper provides an analysis of various storage strategies from the point of view of the incentives of both the prosumers and the distribution system operators with and without PV power production and electricity consumption forecasts. Relying on day-ahead forecasts, a new storage operating strategy is proposed that simultaneously enables a high self-sufficiency ratio and effective peak shaving. The comparison of three different PV power forecasts revealed that the most valuable forecast is not always the one with the lowest errors, but it depends on the application.