Modeling Multi-Temporal Correlation of PV Stations Output via Improved Nonparametric Disaggregation Method in Power System Reliability Evaluation

The accurate modeling of multi-temporal correlation of photovoltaic stations output is important to achieve the precise power system reliability. However, the existing studies is mainly focused on the hourly temporal correlation between adjacent interval outputs of photovoltaic station. In this paper, a novel multi-temporal correlation modeling method for photovoltaic station output is proposed by using an improved nonparametric disaggregation (INPD) technique, and the multi-temporal characteristic representing the interactive correlation between the total daily output and hourly temporal outputs are deeply explored. Moreover, a three-stage sampling method for the INPD based power system reliability evaluation is further presented considering the multi-temporal correlation of photovoltaic stations output, which includes 1) the random sampling of daily photovoltaic station output; 2) the random disaggregation of daily output to the hourly temporal outputs and 3) the random sampling of power device. Finally, several numerical tests are conducted for a modified IEEE-RTS79 to validate the proposed method.