Assessing the Dynamics of Monkeypox Transmission: A Comprehensive Mathematical Modelling Approach

Monkeypox, a zoonotic ailment that mirrors smallpox clinically, has become a pressing public health issue, predominantly in Central and West Africa. Emerging evidence hints at the possibility of vertical transmission (from mother to offspring), an avenue which, to date, remains underexplored. A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model was adopted, incorporating vertical transmission mechanisms. This expanded model was then parameterized using existing monkeypox infection datasets. The model was solved analytically to ascertain equilibrium points and their stability. Additionally, numerical simulations were carried out using a Runge-Kutta fourth-order method to capture the temporal dynamics of the disease under various scenarios. Our results indicate that while vertical transmission may not be the primary mode of disease spread, it holds the potential to sustain the virus in isolated or smaller communities. Notably, the model emphasized the significance of a high vaccination rate, and the challenges posed by vaccination wanes over time. Sensitivity analyses revealed the pronounced effects of recovery rate and vaccination parameters on the disease's dynamics. In conclusion, this study not only underscores the critical role of vertical transmission in understanding monkeypox's overall dynamics but also sheds light on the paramount importance of consistent vaccination strategies, even in the face of waning immunity.