Research and Practice on Long-term Electricity Price Forecasting of New Energy Power Generation Enterprises in Electricity Spot Market

This paper studies the status quo of electricity price forecasting and the factors of electricity price formation in the electricity spot market of Shanxi Province and, proposes a long-term electricity price forecasting algorithm based on multi-model modeling and triple exponential smoothing model, and successfully forecasts the spot price of electricity in 24 periods in the next month. Multi-model modeling is based on regression analysis and neural network algorithms commonly used in short-term electricity price forecasting, with the addition of grey theory modeling. The triple exponential smoothing method is based on the second exponential smoothing and performs another smoothing. It is verified that the model algorithm could effectively forecast the monthly electricity spot market price, which plays an important role in the monthly medium and long-term transaction decision of new energy power generation enterprises under the electricity market system of Shanxi Province, and has high application value.