Power installed capacity prediction considering green certificate trading and carbon trading

Under the background of "dual-carbon" target, the tradings of green certificate and carbon cooperate with electricity trading to help the energy system achieve clean and low-carbon transformation through market-oriented role, from the perspectives of controlling carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy consumption, respectively. In this paper, the interaction mechanism is also described through the three markets coupling trading block diagram. Then, a synergistic trading clearing model for the three markets with the target of maximized system total revenue is constructed. And model prediction technology is used to predict the output curves of renewable energy and calculate their effective working hours. Finally, the trend of power supply structure adjustment under the joint effect of green certificate trading and carbon trading is simulated based on the system dynamics model built on the Vensim platform.