The Impact of Spatial Distribution on Wind Power Availability: A Model-based Analysis for Hungary

At present, the installed wind generation capacity amounts to 323 MW in Hungary, concentrated in the North-Western part of the country. With regard to a future extension, a model-based method was developed for a preliminary assessment of the impacts of geographic distribution on wind power availability and variability. The base model, built on the basis of a national wind power plant database and calibrated to historical power system data, converts gridded wind speed data from climate reanalysis into aggregate output. To analyze the impact of geographic distribution, further hypothetical wind turbines were added to the existing wind power plants. The simulated aggregate power output time series from both operating and hypothetical wind turbines allowed for an evaluation under several criteria such as expected wind yield by region, simultaneity, and variability. The results show that expected wind yields are significantly lower in the light wind areas while spatial diversification offers only a limited room for geographic smoothing.