Using ProdRisk–SHOP Simulator for Investment Decisions of Solar and Hydro Hybridization

This paper uses two scheduling tools to compare the economic performance and production outcomes of three investment alternatives in a Norwegian hydropower plant. The investment options considered are 1) Hybridization with Floating Photovoltaics (FPV), 2) Incorporation of an additional creek inlet to the reservoir, and 3) Enhancement of the generator capacity. Specifically, we utilize a short-term deterministic optimization model (SHOP) and a simulator that integrates the deterministic model with a mid-term stochastic model (ProdRisk-SHOP Simulator). Based on 24 years of historical inflow data, market prices, and simulated 10-MWp FPV production from 2000 to 2023, the numerical results of both tools indicate that the additional creek inlet option yields the highest average economic returns, followed by the hybrid configuration. While the upgraded capacity scenario results in the lowest average annual profit, it capitalizes on volatile market conditions by maximizing production during price spikes. ProdRisk-SHOP Simulator outperforms SHOP regarding resource management since in SHOP, the initial and end reservoir water levels are predetermined, whereas in the simulator, they are part of the optimization.