Modeling and Predicting Constraints in Nordic Flow-Based Market Using Open Data

Production planning and optimization of bidding strategies play an important role in modern electricity markets with a high share of renewable energy. This decision-making requires detailed electricity market models estimating and forecasting the underlying parameters. The ongoing implementation of the flow-based market coupling in the Nordic region poses a challenge to current models as it introduces detailed transmission constraints based on power transfer distribution factors. The analysis and modelling are challenging since the official static grid models are not available for the region. Moreover, the physical location of many anonymized network elements is unknown. This study uses open data to construct a detailed grid model and proposes algorithms for anonymous grid elements identification, generation shift keys adjustment, and prediction of changes in transmission constraints due to grid changes. The proposed models were tested, and the results were validated using open data available from JAO.