The Forecast of Health Human Resources During the Period of “Healthy China 2030” in Shandong Province

Objective: To analyze the development status of health human resources in Shandong Province from 2009 to 2021, and predict the development trend of health human resources in Shandong Province during the “Healthy China 2030” period. Method: Based on the relevant data on health human resources from 2009 to 2021, a grey GM (1,1) prediction model was constructed to predict and analyze the allocation of health human resources in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2030. Result: by 2030, the number of health personnel, health technicians, licensed (assistant) physicians, and registered nurses reached 1.56 million, 1.41 million, 585000, and 751000, respectively; The number of licensed (assistant) physicians and registered nurses per thousand population will reach 5.44 and 6.98 respectively; The healthcare ratio will reach 1:1.28. Conclusion: By 2030, the number of health human resources in Shandong Province will increase, but the number of nursing staff still cannot alleviate the shortage of health human resources and the unreasonable proportion of medical staff in Shandong Province.