Equivalent Circuit Output Model for Runoff Hydropower Stations Based on Improved Particle Swarm Algorithm

Hydropower plant output model is one of the key tools to promote the sustainable development of renewable energy and power systems which is of key importance in energy management and planning. Runoff hydropower stations with poor regulating ability have random and fluctuating output, so the realization of hydropower station output prediction is beneficial for adjusting the balance of supply and demand in the power system and formulating reasonable power generation plans and water resource management strategies. Based on the comprehensive consideration of the factors affecting the output of small hydropower, this paper focuses on the general model of small hydropower generation flow under the coupling of multiple factors. Combined with power system characteristics, a small hydropower output prediction model based on nonlinear circuit mapping is proposed. A parameter solving method based on improved particle swarm algorithm is proposed for the model, and finally the simulation is carried out through the actual data of a city, and the simulation results verify the feasibility, validity and advancement of the model. Output prediction modelling of hydropower plants can improve the resilience of the power system, reduce operating costs and ensure the stability of the power supply.