Multi-Strain Dynamics: Modeling Dengue Transmission in Brazilian Regions with SIR Models

Dengue is a viral disease that represents a significant public health challenge in Brazil, with different virus strains complicating control efforts. This study aims to analyze the transmission dynamics of dengue fever in Brazilian regions, considering the influence of different virus strains. Multi-strain virus spread exhibit distinct transmission dynamics, leading to strain-specific impacts on the timing, intensity, and geographic spread of outbreaks. This study highlights the importance of understanding multi-strain dynamics for effective dengue control in Brazil. The study case for Goiás and Federal District in 2023 achieved a MAPE of 0.1901 and 0.3053, respectively. In 2024, although relatively lower MAPE values of 0.1884 and 0.2045 were achieved, more observations are necessary to enhance the predictive accuracy of the model. In that context, this approach has proven to be a promising tool for analyzing the dynamics of dengue transmission in Goiás and Federal District.