Risk assessment of a base power deficit in the electric power system

The paper considers the main factors, influencing on the risk of a base power shortage in an electric power system. A methodology for assessing the base active power in the electric power system is proposed. The fact that the magnitude of the base active power depends on the composition of the operating generators in the nuclear and thermal power plants, on their capacity and reliability parameters, is taken into account. When forming the risk assessment criteria, it is also taken into account that the systemic failures in electric power systems are regarded as events, causing severe consequences: disruption of stability; cascading shutdown of power lines; abnormal levels of mode parameters. The developed methodology is applied to assess the risk at the moment of occurrence of a base power shortage in various possible events in the electric power system.