Quantitative Analysis and Collision Risk Assessment of Near-Earth Orbit Space Debris for Sustainable Space Exploration

This study employs a rigorous data-driven approach to quantitatively assess the risks associated with N ear-Earth Objects (NEOs). Focusing on NEOs with diameters exceeding 100 meters and those approaching within one Lunar Distance from Earth, we analyze 23 years of data from the Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEO). Our analysis reveals significant gaps in our ability to monitor these celestial bodies, with approximately one-third of potentially hazardous NEOs remaining undetected. The study underscores the importance of enhanced efforts in NEO detection, tracking, and planetary defense strategies to mitigate the low but tangible probability of NEO collisions with Earth's orbit. Following an initial collision, the likelihood of a subsequent impact increases by 2.6 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. Addressing these challenges is crucial for safeguarding life on Earth against the potential threats posed by these cosmic phenomena.