Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Ecosystem Health in Xinjiang

Ecosystem health is a key indicator of regional sustainable development and is important for guiding regional ecological improvement. However, long-term time-series analyses of ecosystem health, its drivers, and changes related to future trends have not yet been adequately carried out. Xinjiang, a typical Central Asian arid region, is taken as a case study, and an indicator system based on the driver–pressure–state–impact–response model is established. Then, an ecosystem health assessment method using the TOPSIS model with the combined weighting method is proposed, and the determinants influencing the health of ecosystems are scrutinized utilizing the geographical detector approach and the geographically weighted regression model. Finally, the future trend of ecosystem health change was predicted by applying the Hurst exponent combined with slope trend analysis. The findings reveal the following observations: First, between 2000 and 2020, the zones in Xinjiang demonstrating robust ecosystem health predominantly encompassed the Altai Mountains and areas proximal to the Tian Shan Mountains; the low-value regions were concentrated in the Junggar Basin and around the Tarim Basin; and the areas with an improved ecosystem health index accounted for 92.1% of the research zone. Second, natural driving factors dominate the research zone. Dominant drivers vary among regions and are affected by interactions between multiple factors, with positive and negative effects. Third, in the designated study area, regions exhibiting an increase and persistent trend in ecosystem health are projected to constitute 85.05% of the total area. This research is promising for providing decision support and a case for sustainable development in Xinjiang.