Mapping of Local Climate Zones and Heat Hazard Assessment from a Historical-Future Perspective

Achieving the sustainable development goals puts new demands on land use/land cover (LULC) forecasting and thermal environment improvement. Local climate zone (LCZ) characterization reduces LULC uncertainty in climate research. This study designed a future multiscenario LCZ thermal environment assessment framework that integrates remote sensing images, a patch-level land use simulation model, and a contribution algorithm. An urban heat island (UHI) classification was used to represent the degree of heat hazard. We sought to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of LCZ and its heat hazard and explore the coordination mode of LULC patterns and the thermal environment. We considered four future scenarios: a natural development scenario (NDS), urban development scenario (UDS), food security scenario, and ecological protection scenario. The results show that the Shenyang metropolitan area has experienced large-scale land urbanization, forming the main UHI areas with Shenyang–Fushun, Liaoyang–Anshan, and Fuxin as the core. This is expected to become the first area for heat hazard management in the future. The areas that produce heat hazards are mainly distributed as LCZ D and building-LCZs. By 2060, the average heat hazard in the UDS is expected to increase by 1.035 °C and that in the NDS by 0.286 °C compared to that in 2020. From the perspective of the “historical future,” the study results provide a theoretical reference for the continuous improvement of environmental quality in the new era, promoting the coordinated development of metropolitan areas and actively responding to climate change.