Enhancing Road Safety: Predictive Modeling of Accident-Prone Zones with ADAS-Equipped Vehicle Fleet Data

This work presents a novel approach to identifying possible early accident-prone zones in a large city-scale road network using geo-tagged collision alert data from a vehicle fleet. The alert data has been collected for a year from 200 city buses installed with the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS). To the best of our knowledge, no research paper has used ADAS alerts to identify the early accident-prone zones. A nonparametric technique called Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) is employed to model the distribution of alert data across stratified time intervals. A novel recall-based measure is introduced to assess the degree of support provided by our density-based approach for existing, manually determined accident-prone zones (‘blackspots’) provided by civic authorities. This shows that our KDE approach significantly outperforms existing approaches in terms of the recall-based measure. Introducing a novel linear assignment Earth Mover Distance based measure to predict previously unidentified accident-prone zones. The results and findings support the feasibility of utilizing alert data from vehicle fleets to aid civic planners in assessing accident-zone trends and deploying traffic calming measures, thereby improving overall road safety and saving lives.