Prediction of gas utilization ratio based on singular spectrum analysis, improved PSO and KELM

The gas utilization ratio (GUR) in a blast furnace is directly linked to the efficiency, cost-effectiveness and environmental impact on the blast furnace ironmaking process. However, The stability of the published GUR time series prediction models need to be improved. This paper presents an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) incorporating linearly decreasing inertia weights (LDIW) to optimize the kernel-based extreme learning machine (KELM) for single-step prediction. This paper uses singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to preprocess the data and extract the key components from the GUR time series to solve the problem of high volatility of the GUR time series. In addition, this paper introduces LDIW to improve the optimization ability of particle swarm optimization algorithm, which enhances the stability of a single-step prediction model. Then this paper uses the improved PSO algorithm to extract the optimal parameters of KELM, and establishes a single-step GUR prediction model based on the improved PSO-KELM. Finally, this paper uses the actual production process data of blast furnace to verify the prediction model. The results show that the prediction accuracy of GUR and the overall stability of the model are significantly improved, providing important guidance for the blast furnace ironmaking process.