Thermal Hydraulic Analysis of High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Pebble-Bed Module Using a Systematic Parameter Estimation Approach

The world’s first high-temperature gas-cooled reactor pebble-bed module (HTR-PM) utilizes innovative nuclear reactor type and multi-module with one turbine system structure layout. Coordinated control and optimization of the nuclear system rely highly on first principle modeling of the process. A reliable mathematical model must be formulated with estimable parameters to accurately characterize the system behavior under different operating conditions. This paper focuses on performing thermal hydraulic analysis of the HTR- PM plant based on nonlinear parameter estimation. A systematic approach consisting of Bayesian estimation, estimability analysis, reliability evaluation and subset reduction is presented to tackle the coupling issue with the related thermal hydraulic parameters. The estimable subset is finally determined to ensure reliable parameter estimates.