Probability Analysis of the Failure of the Unmanned Power System in Antarctica Based on Fault Tree

This paper begins by analyzing the structural composition of the unmanned power system in Antarctica. The system is divided into components, including the diesel generator system, supervisory control system, communication system, energy storage system, and temperature control system. Based on the structural analysis of the system, a system fault tree is constructed with 'Failure of the Unmanned Power System in Antarctica' as the top event. Subsequently, a quantitative analysis of the fault tree is conducted using a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), expert semantics, and fuzzy mathematics. The calculation method for the occurrence probability of bottom events in the fault tree is introduced. The Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) method is then applied to calculate the failure probability of the top event in the fault tree. Finally, some key maintenance measures are proposed.