Scenario Generation of Multiple Wind Farm Power Output Considering Spatial Correlation Based on Vine Copula

Scenario generation of multiple wind farm power output is the basis of security assessment of the power system with a high proportion of wind power. There is a spatial correlation among multiple wind farm power output. However, it is difficult for the current research methods to accurately model the spatial correlation of multiple wind farm power output, which may lead to inaccurate scenario generation results. For the above problem, a scenario generation method of multiple wind farm output considering the spatial correlation based on vine copula is proposed. Firstly, the optimal copula of two wind farm power output is selected based on most likelihood estimation and Euclidean discrimination. Secondly, D-vine is taken as the structure of vine copula and vine copula model of multiple wind farm power output is constructed. Finally, taking five wind farms in a Chinese city as an example, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.