Effects of Forecast Uncertainties on the Energy Management Optimization for Retail Electricity Customers Under CUF-Based Contracts

In a capacity utilization factor (CUF)-based contract, the higher the volume of energy procured from the retailer, the lower the retail electricity price. With this CUF-based tariff, the challenge for a retail electricity consumer is scheduling all available energy resources while targeting an optimal CUF, to minimize the energy costs. Given that some of the parameters that affect the energy management cannot be forecasted accurately, the effects of forecast uncertainties on the energy management optimization were investigated, to avoid underestimating the energy costs and provide stable power for retail electricity customers with CUF-based contracts. When the uncertainties in the load, solar PV generation, retail electricity price, and wholesale electricity price forecasts were taken into consideration, the simulation results from the implementation in MATLAB and Gurobi Optimizer showed that the uncertainties in the wholesale electricity price forecast have the most significant impact on the optimal CUF, energy cost, and energy cost savings.