Solving the Energy Supply Strategic Planning Problem by Extended Group Multirole Assignment

Everybody knows that China has put forward the concept of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" in response to climate change. This paper proposes a novel perspective from the standpoint of the Role-Based Collaboration (RBC), employing the Environment-Classes, Agents, Roles, Groups, and Objects (E-CARGO) model and the Group Multirole Assignment (GMRA) model to construct an energy supply strategic planning (ESSP) that simulates the progressive carbon peaking process in order to compare and analyze the current carbon peaking target of China. Secondly, we propose a simple method to evaluate carbon peaking schemes, and conduct simulation experiments for different schemes. It is concluded that Chinese current carbon peaking target is relatively conservative, projecting achievement by 2027 with an estimated 19.7 billion tons of CO2 emissions, while having the lowest cost per unit of emission reduction. Furthermore, a significant reduction of 66.08% in carbon intensity is projected for 2030 compared to 2005, which is 1.08% higher than the original target.