Analysis of the insurance supply chain in the context of geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty in France

The global importance of insurance supply chains has surged in recent decades due to escalating risks, crises, wars, and uncertainties in international markets. These changes underscore the essential role of the insurance supply chain, requiring insurers to adapt in order to sustain their operations and manage risks effectively. This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on the French insurance supply chain, using annual data spanning from 1990 to 2022. We applied the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze both long-term and short-term relationships. The findings reveal that both geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty have significant and positive effects on the insurance supply chain in the short and long term, with the impact being more substantial in the long term. Additionally, the results indicate that GDP per capita significantly affects long-term insurance premiums. The reliability of these findings is corroborated through the use of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) techniques.