Predictive Analysis of Sarajevo’s AQI using Machine Learning Models for Varied Data Granularity and Prediction Windows

This study scrutinizes five years of Sarajevo’s Air Quality Index (AQI) data using diverse machine learning models — Fourier autoregressive integrated moving average (Fourier ARIMA), Prophet, and Long short-term memory (LSTM)—to forecast AQI levels. Focusing on various prediction frames, we evaluate model performances and identify optimal strategies for different temporal granularities. Our research unveils subtle insights into each model’s efficacy, shedding light on their strengths and limitations in predicting AQI across varied timeframes. This research presents a robust framework for automatic optimization of AQI predictions, emphasizing the influence of temporal granularity on prediction accuracy, automatically selecting the most efficient models and parameters. These insights hold significant implications for data-driven decision-making in urban air quality control, paving the way for proactive and targeted interventions to improve air quality in Sarajevo and similar urban environments.